The Projections

This is the page where you can buy my projections for the price of $5.50 USD (or roughly $6.95 CAD for those up north). If you don’t want to read what I wrote just scroll down a little until you see a “Buy Now” button.

These projections cost $5.50. From that, $0.25 will go towards PayPal fees, $1.75 will go towards my yearly pizza budget and the remaining $3.50 will go towards charity $0.50 will go towards PayPal fees (for some reason I thought they only took 4%, but I was mistaken), $1.65 will go towards my yearly pizza budget and the remaining $3.35 will go towards charityThe original spirit of these projections was using some of the profit to help those in need. I raised the price this year by two dollars so we can collectively give a little more this year.

I haven’t decided how the money will be split between these charities just yet, but here’s where the proceeds are going. I’ve added links to each place if you’re feeling extra generous:

I’m not sure how many of these projections I will sell (last year it was around 300-350), but if I do end up selling a large amount I may also extend some donations to initiatives from some good Twitter suggestions: Canadian Mental Health and the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women. Not that those issues aren’t also very important, I just want to make sure there’s enough to go around and don’t want to spread my efforts too thin.

Here’s what you’re buying:

  • Projections for 588 skaters and 62 goalies
  • Skater stats projected: goals, assists, points, powerplay points, shorthanded points, shots, blocks, time on ice
  • Goalie stats projected: wins, losses, shutouts, saves, goals against, games played, save percentage, goals against average
  • Projections based on the last three seasons of a player’s career, weighted by a multi-variate regression for each stat, and age adjusted
  • Fully customizable to your league’s scoring settings
  • The most accurate measurement last season for point pace, shot pace and powerplay point pace (the fundamentals of any fantasy league) against three other sources, as well as most goalie stats for starting goalies. Full evaluation can be found here. Overall, it did pretty well.
  • Editable so if there’s a projection you don’t agree with, you can change it and the data will auto-update
  • Live GP projections, so if you want to edit GP yourself (everyone is currently set to 82GP) for someone injury-prone like Evgeni Malkin or Kris Letang, the rest of the stats will auto update to your games-played projection
  • Customizable Value Over Replacement Player calculations to create better rankings
  • Average Draft Position for Yahoo and ESPN leagues to show which players are potentially under- and overrated at the draft
  • Separate sheets for points-based and category-based leagues
  • A very fancy spreadsheet, basically, in Microsoft Excel or Apple Numbers format. I would recommend using Apple Numbers if you do own a Mac because that’s the program it was built in. I know it’s weird and not great, but just trust me.

Here is a screenshot of the spreadsheet in question (click to expand):

Scoring setting for the rankings below are: PTS=3, SOG=0.4, STP=2, W=3, SVS=0.4, GA=-3

Screen Shot 2017-08-31 at 9.08.20 PM.png

And here’s a link to the top 10 at each position by points (skaters) and wins (goalies) so you can see some of the projections at work.

If that convinced you to buy it, press the button below that says “Buy Now” which will take you to PayPal. Put your info and give me money. Once the transaction is complete I will get an email with your info and then I’ll email you (the email you use with PayPal) a copy of the spreadsheet in each format. Please give me up to 24 hours to send you the documents as I am not smart enough to automate the process and will have to do this manually (and may not always be at a computer ready to reply back). I will try my best to get it much sooner than that and usually do it within the hour. Thank you for supporting me and my hockey math.

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Update: If your league uses other stats and you don’t mind inputting the data yourself, feel free to email me after you’ve received your projections for a sheet with extra columns.

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