THE PROJECTIONS

This is the page where you can buy my projections for the very economical price (determined through a Twitter poll) of $3.50 USD (or $4.50 CAD for those up north). If you don’t want to read what I wrote just scroll down a little until you see a “Buy Now” button.

UPDATE: No longer selling projections for the 2016-17 season (since it’s about two months through). Left everything on the page as is, but took away the Buy Now button. I will likely post updates after the season on how accurate my model was compared to other projections and I will hopefully be doing this again for the 2017-18 season.

I was originally going to give these way for free, but decided to sell them so I can offer some support to my favourite hockey stats website corsica.hockey. Manny runs an incredible resource for the hockey community on his own dime, without which I wouldn’t even be able to create these projections, so I wanted to give back and thank him for his tireless effort at furthering hockey analysis. That was the main reason. The other was that I worked pretty hard putting this whole thing together and genuinely think it’s one of the best fantasy hockey resources available (that’s not saying this is the only thing you need, the other guides provide very valuable analysis on top of their projections as well as context to each), so I wanted to be rewarded for that effort, I guess. That feels weird to write. I don’t know how many of these I’ll actually sell so I’m not sure how I’ll split the proceeds yet, but I’d guess a large initial chunk will go to Corsica and if I somehow sell a lot of these I’ll probably share the wealth with some other worthy causes that are important to me.

UPDATE: I’ve sold a lot of these, so I am in fact sharing the wealth with another worthy cause, Hockey Fights Domestic Violence. When I brought this up to Manny, he said to donate his share as well, so that’s what we’re doing.

50% of all proceeds will go to a Hockey Fights DV initiative. The other 50% will be used towards a pizza party probably.

Anyways, here’s what you’re buying:

  • Projections for 457 skaters and 51 goalies
  • Skater stats projected: goals, assists, points, powerplay points, shorthanded points, shots, blocks, hits, time on ice
  • Goalie stats projected: wins, shutouts, saves, goals against, games played
  • Projections based on the last three seasons of a player’s career, weighted by a multi-variate regression for each stat, and age adjusted
  • The most accurate point projections (with no games played projection to boot) last season with an RMSE of 10.2 among players featured in the top 300 of all of  the seven sources listed (although they weren’t available to the public so you should not trust me, also that’s only a one year sample size so there isn’t exactly a track record, but still it did well last year!)
  • Even more accurate when looking at point-per-game pace, with an RMSE of 0.101 (8.3 points per 82) compared to 0.123 (10.1 points per 82) for THN’s guide and 0.133 (10.9 points per 82) for Dobber’s guide [these were the only two guides I bought last year so they were the only things I could compare to for PPG], among players listed in all three sources (n=284)
  • Fully customizable to your league’s scoring settings
  • Editable so if there’s a projection you don’t agree with, you can change it and the data will auto-update
  • Live GP projections, so if you want to edit GP yourself (everyone is currently set to 82GP) for someone injury-prone like Evgeni Malkin or Kris Letang, the rest of the stats will auto update to your games-played projection
  • Customizable Value Over Replacement Player calculations to create better rankings
  • Average Draft Position for Yahoo and ESPN leagues to show which players are potentially under- and overrated at the draft
  • Separate sheets for points-based and category-based leagues
  • A very fancy spreadsheet, basically, in Microsoft Excel or Apple Numbers format

Here is a screenshot of the spreadsheet in question (click to expand):

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 2.11.19 PM

And here’s some links to the top 10 at each position by points (skaters) and wins (goalies) so you can see some of the projections at work.

CLWRWDG

If that convinced you to buy it, press the button below that says “Buy Now” which will take you to PayPal. Put your info and give me money. Once the transaction is complete I will get an email with your info and then I’ll email you (the email you use with PayPal) a copy of the spreadsheet in each format. Please give me up to 24 hours to send you the documents as I am not smart enough to automate the process and will have to do this manually (and may not always be at a computer ready to reply back). I will try my best to get it much sooner than that and usually do it within the hour. Thank you for supporting me and my hockey math.

 

 

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