This is a preview of the content available in the 2016-17 Fantasy Projections spreadsheet, which you can purchase here for a reasonably small sum. By content, I mean the projections themselves. The spreadsheet contains no words or analysis about any specific player. If analysis is what you are interested in, you can tweet me a player’s name with #domplshelp and I will send you an appropriate response composed entirely of emojis.
Here are the projected top 10 centres for next season, sorted by points scored (read: not fantasy rankings as those depend on your scoring settings, something you can change yourself in the fancy spreadsheet).
Watch The Throne. This might not be Sid’s league anymore, not if Connor McDavid has anything to say about it. Last year was the introduction, this year will be the full-blown Connor Show. He’s projected for the second highest point pace in the league and he’s definitely an Art Ross contender for 2016-17.
A very conservative estimate for Crosby, especially considering how he played after the coaching change. Crosby was a completely different player under Mike Johnston, in a bad way, and Mike Sullivan has injected new life into the league’s best player. If you take away his tepid start to last season under Johnston, Sid jumps up to 89 points which feels like a much better bet. The projections unfortunately don’t account for that.
One of the best fantasy options in the league thanks to his high point totals and strong periphery stats. Not to mention that his most frequent linemate is also a fantasy star. If your league counts shots (and it should) Seguin is an easy top five pick.
Without a doubt one of the best players in the game, the only issue is how many he plays. I’m not big on trying to predict games played or injuries, but he’s one of the few guys I’d factor some time missed. In a perfect world where Geno is 100 percent healthy, he’s a top five centre by points. It’s too bad we don’t live there.
After a down season, John Tavares is a prime bounce-back candidate. He may have lost his best linemate in Kyle Okposo, but he’s uber talented and one of the few players who’s capable of a point-per-game campaign.
There’s a clear drop-off after the top five guys, going from 75 points in Tavares to 70 points with Nicklas Backstrom. It’ll be interesting to see how many points he actually gets this season as it’s no guarantee he plays with Ovechkin (that spot may go to the guy sitting at #8).
The former Best Player In Hockey (c. April 2012 – May 2012) has fallen from grace a bit over the past few seasons, but he’s still a good threat for another 70 point campaign and some sparkling fantasy numbers. Especially if his buddy Jakub Voracek gets a bit more luck this season.
After a monster 78 point campaign last season for Evgeny Kuznetsov, we should perhaps temper expectations a bit. He exploded last season with a huge breakout performance and while it’s definitely possible he maintains that level, the projection model still remembers his two prior seasons which weren’t so great which brings him down to the 70 point range.
Steven Stamkos isn’t hitting 90 points anymore and it’s probably time we stop expecting it from him. A 40-30-70 campaign is his range now, and while he has the talent to blow that projection out of the water, he doesn’t have Martin St. Louis feeding him anymore and his production has dipped significantly since his departure. On the other hand, maybe if he plays with Nikita Kucherov instead of Ryan Callahan…
I like to think of Anze Kopitar as a modern day Mats Sundin: big, strong, dominant two-way presence who consistently, but unspectacularly puts up points. He probably won’t ever lead the league in points, but he’ll be there in the 10-20 range like clockwork.